Regressions

How we set Obs tier

Obs tier is the player’s actual NHL outcome band in our data — not a scouting grade and not the same as FW’s score. We only use it as the ground-truth label to score whether Pred tier was right.

1. NHL production rate. Take every NHL regular-season row we have loaded for that player (GP > 0). Sum games and points, then convert to a pace: Actual P/82 = (points ÷ games) × 82. That column is the number next to Pred NHLe.
2. Map P/82 → offense role band. Same ladder NHLe uses for “what scoring rate looks like,” with separate cuts for forwards and defense (D offense rates sit lower for the same role language):

   Forwards (P/82)

   • Star · ≥ 78
   • Top-6 · ≥ 50
   • Middle-6 · ≥ 32
   • Bottom-6 · ≥ 20
   • Bubble · ≥ 12
   • AHL / long shot · below that

   Defense (P/82)

   • Top-pair (star) · ≥ 58
   • Top-4 · ≥ 38
   • 2nd pair · ≥ 26
   • 3rd pair · ≥ 16
   • Bubble · ≥ 10
   • AHL / long shot · below that
3. That band is Obs tier. We compare it to Pred tier (from draft-day or first-NHL FW). Hit = exact match · ±1 = adjacent band · no = off by 2+ tiers.

Important limits: this is an offense / scoring-rate destiny label. Shutdown D, PK specialists, and goalies are poorly described by P/82 alone. Career is only as long as the NHL seasons in our dump (not a full HOF-career window for every player). Sample still requires a minimum later NHL GP gate (default 40) so cup-of-coffee rows don’t dominate.

How to read this

• Draft-day mode: FW/NHLe use only seasons with spring end year ≤ draft year (what a team could know by the Entry Draft).
• Sample is drafted skaters only (matched draft year + pick) who later reached the NHL GP threshold — UDFA paths are excluded here.
• Obs tier = actual NHL P/82 from all loaded NHL seasons (points÷GP×82), mapped to the same F/D offense role bands as NHLe (star → AHL). See page section “How we set Obs tier”.
• Draft capital is included as known on draft night (pick is public when the name is called). Pre-pick scouting would zero D — future toggle.
• Survivorship: only players who reached the NHL sample gate.

Use a larger sample size (up to the eligible pool) when adjusting NHLe or FW — small batches bounce around. Hit Different sample a few times to check that a result isn’t just one lucky draw.